This research led by The Asia Foundation, with support from the government of Canada, draws important policy lessons for the future from the peace process surrounding the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. It focuses on the successes and failures of international support for peacebuilding at that time, drawing together findings that can be applied by policymakers and practitioners in Myanmar and internationally. While future efforts to find peace in Myanmar will look very different from those of the past, it is vital that lessons from the past are taken on board.

Myanmar lurched into crisis when the military ousted the civilian government in February 2021. Conflict engulfed much of the country as resistance spread and existing armed groups that had been active for decades were joined by a myriad of new defence forces.

The crisis reached an intensity not seen since the country’s independence. Much of the country was directly affected by widespread violence, displacement, and great humanitarian need. Over the three years following the coup, more than 45,000 people were killed in 30,000 separate armed clashes or events. At least 1.5 million people had been displaced and much of the population was in significant need of humanitarian support.[a]

The military coup and its aftermath followed a period of change, a brief flourishing of democracy and economic opportunity that offered opportunities and hope. As reforms were taken forward, sanctions were lifted, international development agencies looked to provide support and accelerate the country’s development. A ceasefire agreement was signed in 2015, covering some areas that had been affected by long-term conflict for decades, leading to optimism that a peaceful future was possible.

Conducted by The Asia Foundation with the support of the Canadian government, research involved intensive rounds of interviews during 2023 with key informants: peace specialists, civic activists, national and international experts, foreign aid officials, and others. The research team also drew on a small mountain of reports, papers, articles and books. The study is presented in several sections: